Conventional wisdom at the moment says that China’s coming unglued and the country’s stock markets pose a grave danger to global investors. The third time was November 6, 2007, with the S&P 500 at 1,520.27. Over the following 16 months, the S&P 500 declined 55.5% to 676.53 – its largest medium-term percentage decline since the Great Depression. I am not in the bubble camp, but I am growing more cautious about the state of the stock market. The Stock Market Crash of 1929 kicked off the Great Depression Over four days, share prices fell 25%. If Hussman’s analysis is correct, this could very well mean that the next great stock market crash in the United States is imminent. Dividends were on the rise and were expected to continue to increase in the coming years. But the Depression deepened, confidence evaporated and many lost their life savings. As we see, there are many missing values in the HRS stock market expectation data. In addition, I have previously written about how the U.S. dollar went on a great run just before the financial collapse of 2008.
On February 24, 2015, NIA’s 100% perfect stock market crash predictor once again alerted us to an imminent stock market crash. Everywhere I look, technical damage has been done – and it’s like nothing we’ve seen since 2008. The surge in stock market indexes after the election has investors wondering if there is a stock market bubble forming.
A market crash has no fixed definition in terms of percentage loss or duration, which means they can occur in a single day, or over the course of weeks, months, or even years. We also document the co-movement of stock market expectations with ex-post returns, implied volatility and volume of trade.
Money Morning gives you access to a team of ten market experts with more than 250 years of combined investing experience – for free. Besides saving thousands in investing fees, Motif is also my favorite resource for finding stock market ideas and ways to diversify my portfolio. We can now turn to the effects of the interview date in 2008 on expectations in 2008.
When the market goes up, the ETFs go up. And when the market falls by half, the ETFs fall by half, too. Unsurprisingly, avarice prevailed as some traders speculated in stocks paid for by billions of dollars worth of unsecured checks, causing Kuwait’s stock market to inflate like a balloon and pop in a most analogous manner. Likewise, the Japanese bear market of the 1990s occurred over several years without any notable crashes. The question on investors’ minds now is will there be a global stock market crash after Trump’s victory.