Why I Don’t Worry About A Stock Market Crash

Don’t tell stock market investors, but we’re in the middle of the longest earnings recession since 2008. This means that the average investor over the last three decades has believed a severe crash to be more than 24 times more likely than U.S. history would suggest, and that investors currently believe the risks to be 28 times more likely. The famous Panic of 1907, in which Jesse Livermore reputedly singly-handedly brought down the stock market, was a good old-fashioned domestic panic. The economy – The economy had slowed down considerably and the stock market didn’t reflect it. Despite many signs that the economy was struggling, the market continued to rise.

Applying the same ANOVA test to the Shemitah cycle, Pound’s research revealed that the sabbatical years were the only group of years in which the market cycle averages consistent significant losses since 1871. The Dow Jones Industrial Average nearly doubled, …